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| Iranian soldiers conduct a military exercise at an undisclosed location. The country's military released the image after media reports that Iran has recently stepped up military exercises to ensure the security of its nuclear facilities. January 12, 2025 | Photo: AFP |
Analysts think that Donald Trump's second term as US president will be a difficult time for Iran. They say that the period could bring many consequences for the Iranian in its relations with the West.
Along with Israeli leaders, US leaders are also openly discussing military strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure/facilities, power plants, and oil and petrochemical infrastructure.
However, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other leaders are not afraid of these threats. The country's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has recently conducted large-scale military exercises. These exercises have been conducted with the defense of sensitive installations in mind.
Change, but in which direction?
For more than two decades, Iran's relations with the West have revolved mainly around the development of its nuclear program, with efforts to prevent the country from building a nuclear bomb. Tehran has consistently said it does not want to develop weapons of mass destruction.
Iran's top political and military authorities have recently been discussing the possibility of changing Tehran's declared policy of not building a nuclear bomb as security threats mount.
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| A missile defense system during an Iranian military exercise. January 12, 2025 | Photo: AFP |
There appear to be two camps in Tehran. One camp is open to the possibility of talks with the United States on its nuclear program and other issues. The other camp is believed to be firmly committed to building a nuclear bomb. The second camp is considering a nuclear deal, especially given its eroding deterrence against Israel and the plight of its regional allies, said Naysan Rafati, a senior Iran analyst at the Washington-based Crisis Group.
"But even if the first scenario holds water, Washington needs to be interested in starting talks with Tehran," said Naysan Rafati. "Given the Islamic Republic's various weaknesses, it seems likely that Washington will be more aggressive toward Tehran than it is willing to make concessions."
With the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Iran has lost one of the main pillars of its forward defense strategy, and it has hit the country's "axis of resistance" across the region.
Iran is facing widespread sanctions, which have already negatively impacted the country's faltering economy, weakening the national currency and fueling inflation.
The government of Iranian President Masoud Pajhwok, who is in dire economic straits, appears to be seeking to increase dialogue with the West. His government is expected to send diplomats to Europe later this month to hold talks with the E-3 - France, Germany, and the UK.
The framework for the talks appears to be similar to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 nuclear deal Iran struck with world powers that lifted some economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for Tehran agreeing to scale back its nuclear program. However, it is not yet clear what the new framework for the talks will be.
The Pursuit of the New Deal
The situation this time is different from the years of negotiations between Iran and the West before the nuclear deal [in 2015].
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| Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (right) and IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi shake hands before a meeting in Tehran, November 14, 2024 | Photo: AFP |
Trump rejected the JCPOA in 2018 and imposed tough sanctions on Iran. Five years ago, he also ordered the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the country's top general and the main architect of the regional axis.
"The situation is going to be different this time than it was during the first Trump administration," said Elie Geranmayeh, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. "No matter what policies the United States adopts, European countries are going to be much more compliant with them this time. Because in the last few years, as tensions with Tehran have increased, Europeans have pursued a path of maximum pressure on the country in some areas."
Abbas Aslani, a senior research fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies, told Al Jazeera that this year should see major progress, which will further clarify the trajectory of Iran's nuclear program.
Abbas Aslani said that several provisions of the JCPOA have expired, which is why there is increasing interest in negotiating a new understanding. In particular, a key provision of the JCPOA will expire in October 2025. This provision gives Western countries the power to reimpose any sanctions lifted by the United Nations on Iran. (This strategy of reimposing sanctions lifted by the United Nations is known as snapback.)
Eli Geranmayeh said that E3 is keeping the snapback alive as its latest tactic to pressure Iran.
Iran's nuclear program
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| Iran's nuclear facility in Isfahan. Image taken by Planet Labs PBC via satellite | Photo: AP |
According to the latest information, Iran has not yet started building nuclear bombs.
However, a year after Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, Iran began increasing its uranium enrichment levels and the number of centrifuges, a process it is repeating despite Israel's attack on its nuclear facilities and international condemnation.
Iran has installed thousands of new centrifuges in recent months, in response to another Western resolution condemning the country at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board.
Iran is now enriching uranium to 60 percent. Uranium enrichment levels need to be over 90 percent to make a nuclear bomb. As such, the country is relatively close to technologically building a nuclear bomb. According to the IAEA report, Tehran has enough fissile material to make multiple nuclear bombs.
Iran analyst Nisan Rafati of the Crisis Group believes that Iran has some advantages in talking to Trump because of its increased nuclear activities, but he also believes that there are some significant risks.
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| US President-elect Donald Trump | Photo: Reuters |
"Tehran is enriching [uranium] to a level close to weapons-grade and the breakout time [from the initial stage of preparation to the final stage of an attack on a country] appears to be zero. This blurs the line between the US or Israel considering military action [against Iran], which is worrying and quite frightening," Naysan Rafati told Al Jazeera.
Nuclear breakout time refers to the time it takes to produce enough fissile material to make a nuclear bomb. If Iran decides to build a nuclear bomb, it would need to design a weapon and equip it with the necessary components, and adapt it to a long-range missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. A successful test would then need to be conducted.
"I think Iran will not significantly increase its nuclear program in the first few weeks of 2025 unless President Trump aggressively redoubles his maximum pressure campaign," said Elie Geranmayeh, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
The official added that if the US prioritizes diplomatic talks to reduce tensions, Iran's nuclear activities could remain somewhat subdued. Two completely different scenarios could unfold in the future, depending on what position Trump takes.